Preview & Prediction: Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls

Toronto FC hosts the New York Red Bulls at BMO Field on June 25, 2025, in an Eastern Conference clash steeped in rivalry and playoff implications. Toronto, under coach John Herdman, showed signs of resurgence in 2024, narrowly missing the playoffs but displaying attacking promise led by Federico Bernardeschi and Lorenzo Insigne. The Red Bulls, known for their high-pressing, energy-draining style under Sandro Schwarz, remain a consistent postseason threat, finishing 2024 with a strong defensive record. This matchup pits Toronto’s technical flair against New York’s relentless intensity, with BMO Field’s passionate 30,000-strong crowd adding fuel to the fire. As both teams aim to secure a top-six spot in the Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs, this game could be a turning point in their seasons.

Prediction: Toronto FC 1–2 New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls’ disciplined pressing and counterattacking prowess give them a slight edge, even on the road. Toronto’s home form and attacking duo of Bernardeschi and Insigne will create chances, but New York’s defensive solidity, anchored by Andrés Reyes, should limit their impact. Expect a tight, physical match, with the Red Bulls capitalizing on a set piece or transition to secure a narrow victory. A late goal from Emil Forsberg or Lewis Morgan could prove decisive.

Insights:

• Toronto’s Home Strength: Toronto posted a 7–4–6 home record in 2024 at BMO Field, scoring 1.6 goals per game. The 30,000-capacity stadium, with its vocal supporters, creates a challenging atmosphere for visitors.
• Red Bulls’ Road Grit: New York won 6 away games in 2024, conceding just 1.1 goals per game on the road. Their high-press system thrives in hostile environments, disrupting teams like Toronto that rely on build-up play.
• Tactical Clash: Toronto’s 4-2-3-1, under Herdman, focuses on possession and wing play, with Bernardeschi cutting in from the right. The Red Bulls’ 4-4-2 high press, led by Schwarz, aims to force turnovers and exploit transitions, setting up a battle of patience versus intensity.
• Key Matchup: Federico Bernardeschi (8 goals, 6 assists in 2024) versus New York’s John Tolkin will be critical. Bernardeschi’s flair meets Tolkin’s defensive tenacity (2.5 tackles per game), with the winner shaping the game’s flow.
• Rivalry History: The Red Bulls lead the all-time series 20–12–10 since 2007, but Toronto won their last home meeting in 2024 (2–1), with Insigne scoring the winner, adding spice to this fixture.
• Playoff Implications: Both teams are in the Eastern Conference playoff race, with Toronto chasing a wildcard spot and New York aiming for a top-four seed. A win here could boost momentum for the postseason.
• Fan Atmosphere: Toronto’s South End Supporters create a raucous environment with chants and flags, while New York’s Empire Supporters Club will bring vocal energy, intensifying the rivalry.
• Injury Concerns: Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne is fit after managing injuries in 2024, but Jonathan Osorio is questionable with a calf strain. New York’s Emil Forsberg is expected to play despite a minor knock.

Match Forecasts:

• Bernardeschi’s Threat: Federico Bernardeschi’s ability to cut inside and shoot from distance (8 goals in 2024) makes him Toronto’s primary danger. He could exploit gaps if New York’s press falters.
• Red Bulls’ Transition Game: Lewis Morgan (10 goals in 2024) and Emil Forsberg’s quick interplay on the counter could punish Toronto’s high line, especially if fullbacks like Richie Laryea push forward.
• Midfield Battle: Toronto’s Alonso Coello must neutralize New York’s Frankie Amaya (2.2 tackles per game), whose energy drives the press. The team that controls the central areas will dictate the pace.
• Set-Piece Opportunities: New York converted 11% of corners into shots on target in 2024, with Andrés Reyes a aerial threat. Toronto’s Kevin Long could respond, as the Reds scored 7 set-piece goals last season.
• Substitutes’ Impact: Toronto’s Deandre Kerr offers pace off the bench, while New York’s Dante Vanzeir could exploit tired defenses with his direct running in the final 20 minutes.
• Defensive Discipline: Toronto’s backline, led by Shane O’Neill, allowed 1.4 goals per home game in 2024. New York’s compact shape, anchored by Sean Nealis, is tough to break down, limiting Toronto’s chances.
• Physical Intensity: The Red Bulls’ high press leads to physical battles, with both teams averaging over 12 fouls per game in 2024. A late yellow card or moment of frustration could shift momentum.

Match Facts:

• Head-to-Head: New York leads the series 20–12–10 since 2007, with 62 goals scored in those matches (1.5 goals per game average). Toronto’s 2024 home win (2–1) adds intrigue.
• Venue Details: BMO Field, with a capacity of 30,000, is expected to be near full, with Toronto’s supporters creating a hostile environment for the Red Bulls.
• Officiating: The referee is yet to be named, but MLS’s 2025 VAR protocol ensures transparency with in-stadium announcements for reviewed decisions.
• Broadcast Coverage: Streamed on MLS Season Pass via Apple TV, with English and Spanish commentary. Local radio includes TSN 1050 (Toronto) and ESPN 1050 AM (New York).
• Weather Forecast: Toronto on June 25, 2025, expects 72°F with partly cloudy skies and a 10% chance of rain, offering ideal conditions for a fast-paced match.
• Team Milestones: A Toronto win would mark their 150th MLS regular-season victory since 2007. New York aims for their 10th road win of 2025, a feat achieved only twice since 2015.
• Player Milestones: Federico Bernardeschi is two goals shy of 15 career MLS goals for Toronto, while Emil Forsberg could reach 20 goal contributions in 2025 with a goal or assist.