Preview & Prediction: New York City FC vs Orlando City SC

New York City FC enters this match following a mixed run, securing 5 points out of the possible 15 in their last five matches. Despite a lackluster goal-scoring form recently with just three goals in the last five games, they maintain an undefeated run at home and are unbeaten in three matches overall. They will be looking to improve their scoring record, having failed to net in 3 of their last 5 games. Interestingly, their games haven’t seen both teams scoring in all but one of their last five games and altogether in 17 out of 29 matches this season.

On the other hand, Orlando City SC has been outstanding recently, gathering 13 points from the last five matches, accounting for an average of 2.6 points per match. Not only have they displayed a prolific scoring form with 11 goals scored in their past five games, but they also boast an undefeated streak in their last four away games. They head into the clash with New York City FC unbeaten in their last five matches, with four victories and a draw. Both teams have scored in four of their last five matches and this has occurred in 17 out of their 28 games this season.

Historically, there has been little to separate these two sides. By 29th June 2024, they will have met 24 times with New York City FC winning 8, Orlando City SC winning 7, with the remaining 9 games ending in a tie. The last match saw New York City FC triumph with a 5 – 3 scoreline. The games have typically been high-scoring affairs, averaging 2.83 goals with both teams scoring in 67% of the matches.

So far this MLS season, New York City FC has averaged 1.9 Points Per Game in home matches while Orlando City SC has managed 1.33 Points Per Game in their away matches. Given these trends and statistics, we could be in for a closely contested match.

Insights

• Orlando City comes into this match with a significantly better recent form, having garnered 13 points from their last 5 games as compared to New York City’s 5 points from their last 5 games.
• The trend suggests that Orlando City has been far more prolific in scoring recently, scoring 11 times in the last 5 fixtures in contrast to New York City’s 3 goals in the same period.
• Both teams have been performing well in their respective home and away regimes, with New York City unbeaten in the last 3 home games and Orlando City unbeaten in the last 4 away games.
• Though New York City is having a good run of form having remained unbeaten in the last 3 games, Orlando City’s momentum is stronger with 6 games without losing.
• New York City has been struggling to find the back of the net recently, failing to score in 3 of the last 5 games, suggesting possible line-up or tactical changes for this game.
• Historical head-to-head data suggests a fair level of competition between the two sides with New York City winning 8 matches, Orlando City winning 7 and 9 matches ending in a draw out of their previous 24 meetings.
• The average goals per game in previous matches between these two teams is relatively high at 2.83 goals, which makes a high scoring game a possibility.
• Matches between these two teams have generally seen both teams getting on the scoresheet, with ‘Both Teams to Score’ (BTTS) landing in 67% of the games.
• Points per game averages for the season place New York City higher at home (1.9) but Orlando City fairly competitive in their away games (1.33).
• The last match between these two teams was a goal feast with a 5-3 victory for New York City, suggesting this upcoming game can be quite eventful.

Match Forecast

• Orlando City SC, with their proficiency in coming back from losing positions and finishing scoring chances, is likely to capitalize against New York City FC’s weakness in finishing scoring chances and defending against long shots.
• New York City FC’s strong defending set piece skills may limit Orlando City SC’s attempts at goals from set pieces.
• Given Orlando City SC’s tendency to attack through the middle and down the left, and their weakness in aerial duels, New York City FC’s short passes and possession football may help steady their control over the game.
• New York City FC might exploit Orlando City SC’s weakness at defending against through balls given their strength at creating chances using through balls.
• Due to Orlando City SC’s play style of opponents playing aggressively against them and NYC FC playing largely in their own half, NYC FC might look to adopt a more defensive posture initially since their strength lies in defending set pieces, which might then further transition into counter attacks.
• Given the consistent first eleven of Orlando, if New York City FC can study and understand the play style and tactics of individual players, it might offer them an upper hand in the game.
• The weaknesess of both teams in avoiding offside may result in several interruptions and decreased fluidity in play.

Match Facts

• A 1-1 draw has been the typical outcome for games involving New York City FC and Orlando City SC, with 8 games ending this way.
• In the last 9 home games of New York City FC against Orlando City SC, they’ve secured 5 victories, with 2 draws and Orlando winning twice. The goal difference is 21-9 favoring New York City FC.
• Out of the last 26 encounters, both New York City FC and Orlando City SC have each had 8 victories with 10 games ending in a draw. The goal tally is 42-31 to the advantage of New York City FC.
• Orlando City SC last experienced an away victory against New York City FC back in 2017.
• The matches of the previous season finished 2-0 in favor of New York City FC (at home) and 1-1 at Orlando City SC’s home.
• Interesting fact: New York City FC tends to score 38% of their total goals during the 76-90 minute marks – the highest in the league. Orlando City SC have a similar trend, scoring 37% of their goals in the same time frame.
• Orlando City SC haven’t managed a victory in their last 5 matches.
• In their last 5 home games against Orlando City SC, New York City FC have sustained their unbeaten record.
• New York City FC failed to score in one out of their 10 home matches for this MLS season, while Orlando City SC haven’t scored in 3 of their 9 away games.
• Santiago Rodriguez is the top scorer for New York City FC with 7 goals. On the other side, Duncan McGuire is Orlando City SC’s lead scorer with 6 goals.
• Hannes Wolf has made the most assists for New York City FC (3) whilst Nicolas Lodeiro has provided the most assists for Orlando City SC (4).
• Orlando City SC have conceded at least a goal in their last 5 games.
• Both New York City FC and Orlando City SC have a 27% victory rate in the first halves of their matches.
• The last game between these teams was won by New York City FC, where they had a 2 goal advantage.
• When New York City FC takes the lead at home with a 1-0 scoreline, they often win 69% of the time. Conversely, when Orlando City takes a 0-1 lead away, they manage to secure victory 85% of the time.
• If New York City FC is trailing 0-1 at home, they still win 33% of their games. But when Orlando City is behind 1-0 away from home, they’ve made a comeback in only 28% of matches.
• New York City FC’s performance in the MLS has been better than Orlando City SC’s.
• Over their last 5 matches, New York City FC has displayed a better performance than Orlando City SC.
• In the recent 5 encounters between these teams, New York City FC won thrice, Orlando City once, and one game ended in a draw.
• The teams tend to score an average of 3 goals per match in their encounters, with 0.8 of those usually happening in the first half.
• Both teams did not manage a win in their previous MLS match.
• On average, New York City FC scores 1.61 goals when playing at home, and Orlando City SC scores 1.38 goals when playing on the road.