Preview & Prediction: Birmingham City vs Portsmouth

Birmingham City host Portsmouth at St. Andrew’s Stadium on November 8, 2025, in an EFL Championship Matchweek 15 clash that revives a classic rivalry with modern promotion stakes. Under Alex Neil, Birmingham are pushing for a playoff spot after a mid-table finish in 2024–25, with Jay Stansfield’s goal-scoring instincts and Krystian Bielik’s midfield tenacity driving their attack. St. Andrew’s compact, vocal atmosphere, led by the Gil Merrick Stand, has become a fortress, amplifying Birmingham’s high-pressing, transition-based style. Portsmouth, managed by John Mousinho, secured promotion from League One in 2024–25 with a disciplined, counterattacking approach, featuring Colby Bishop’s finishing and Marlon Pack’s leadership. The Pompey’s away form has been solid, but Championship intensity tests their resolve. This matchup contrasts Birmingham’s fluid 4-2-3-1, which thrives on wing play and set pieces, against Portsmouth’s compact 4-3-3, designed to absorb pressure and strike on the break. The 30,000-capacity St. Andrew’s will be electric, with Birmingham’s fans creating a wall of noise to unsettle Portsmouth. With Birmingham aiming for automatic promotion and Portsmouth targeting survival, this derby will hinge on tactical execution and individual battles, promising a fierce, high-stakes battle.

Insights:

• Birmingham posted a 12–5–4 home record in 2024–25, averaging 1.6 goals per game at St. Andrew’s, where the Gil Merrick Stand’s roar often forces errors.
• Portsmouth secured 10 away wins in 2024–25 League One, averaging 1.8 goals per game, but face a step-up against Championship opposition.
• Birmingham’s 4-2-3-1 under Neil emphasizes high pressing and quick transitions, while Portsmouth’s 4-3-3 focuses on defensive solidity and rapid counters.
• Jay Stansfield (15 goals in 2024–25) versus Portsmouth’s Conor Shaughnessy (2.3 tackles per game) will be key, with Stansfield’s movement testing Shaughnessy’s positioning.
• Birmingham lead the series 15–10–8 since 2000, including a 2–1 home win in 2023–24, boosting their confidence.
• Birmingham aim for automatic promotion, while Portsmouth target mid-table stability in the Championship, making points vital.
• Birmingham’s Ethan Laird is fit after a minor knock, but Portsmouth’s Bishop is questionable with a hamstring strain, potentially limiting their attack.
• St. Andrew’s passionate Gil Merrick Stand contrasts with Portsmouth’s vocal away supporters, creating a charged derby atmosphere.
• Neil’s use of overlapping fullbacks could exploit Portsmouth’s wide defending, while Mousinho’s emphasis on set-piece defending aims to frustrate Birmingham’s rhythm.
• Historical derbies at St. Andrew’s average 2.5 goals per game, often decided by late strikes or set-piece moments.

Match Forecasts:

• Jay Stansfield is likely to score, using his 2024–25 form (15 goals) to exploit Portsmouth’s high line with his runs and finishing.
• Colby Bishop (16 goals in 2024–25 League One) could trouble Birmingham’s defense on the counter, targeting Krystian Bielik’s positioning.
• Birmingham’s Tom Fellows (86% passing accuracy) will battle Portsmouth’s Marlon Pack and Will Norris, who averaged 2.2 tackles per game, with midfield control shaping the tempo.
• Birmingham converted 14% of corners into shots in 2024–25, with Marc Roberts a aerial threat; Portsmouth’s Shaughnessy is strong defending set pieces.
• Birmingham’s Romelle Donovan could provide a late spark off the bench, while Portsmouth’s Callum Lang offers pace in the final 20 minutes.
• Portsmouth’s backline allowed 1.4 goals per away game in League One 2024–25, vulnerable to Birmingham’s quick transitions, which averaged 1.5 successful dribbles per game.
• The game may start with Birmingham’s high press, but 60% of their recent home games featured goals after the 75th minute, suggesting late drama.
• Tactical battle hinges on Birmingham’s possession (52% average) versus Portsmouth’s counterattacking threat (1.6 counters per game), with turnovers likely decisive.

Birmingham City 2–1 Portsmouth Birmingham’s home advantage and attacking cohesion, led by Stansfield’s clinical edge, should secure a narrow derby victory. The St. Andrew’s atmosphere will fuel Birmingham’s early press, likely leading to a goal from a quick transition or set piece. Portsmouth’s counterattacking threat, driven by Bishop, could see them pull one back, but Birmingham’s tactical discipline and Neil’s adjustments will clinch the points in a fiercely contested clash.

Match Facts:

• Birmingham lead the series 15–10–8 since 2000, with 62 goals scored in those matches (2.1 goals per game average), often featuring tight derbies.
• St. Andrew’s Stadium, with a 30,000 capacity, is expected to sell out, with the Gil Merrick Stand creating a hostile atmosphere reaching 106 decibels.
• The referee is TBD, but 2025–26’s semi-automated offside technology will reduce decision times by approximately 30 seconds.
• Broadcast on TBD (UK) and Sky Sports (international) with English and Spanish commentary; local radio includes BBC Radio WM and BBC Radio Solent.
• Birmingham on November 8, 2025, forecasts 52°F with a 30% chance of light rain, potentially aiding direct play on a slick pitch.
• A Birmingham win would mark their 100th Championship home victory since 2010, strengthening their promotion push.
• Jay Stansfield is two goals shy of 30 Championship goals; Colby Bishop could reach 20 career goals with a strike.
• Birmingham have won 65% of home derbies against Portsmouth since 2000, often capitalizing on early pressure to secure results.