Preview & Prediction: Derby County FC vs Leicester City FC

Derby County FC host Leicester City FC at Pride Park Stadium on November 22, 2025, in an EFL Championship Matchweek 16 derby that revives a historic East Midlands rivalry with high promotion stakes. Under Paul Warne, Derby County FC are aiming for a top-half finish after promotion from League One in 2024–25, with Nathaniel Mendez-Laing’s wing flair and James Collins’ veteran finishing driving their attack. Pride Park’s passionate atmosphere, led by the South Stand, has become a fortress, amplifying Derby County FC’s high-energy, counterattacking style. Leicester City FC, managed by Steve Cooper, are chasing automatic promotion after relegation from the Premier League, featuring Jamie Vardy’s clinical edge and Wilfred Ndidi’s midfield tenacity. The Foxes’ away form has been dominant, but Pride Park’s intensity poses a unique challenge. This matchup contrasts Derby County FC’s fluid 4-2-3-1, built for quick transitions and set pieces, against Leicester City FC’s disciplined 4-3-3, designed to control possession and exploit wide areas. The 33,600-capacity Pride Park will be electric, with Derby County FC’s fans creating a wall of noise to unsettle Leicester City FC. With Derby County FC targeting stability and Leicester City FC aiming for the top two, this derby will hinge on tactical execution and individual battles, promising a fierce, high-stakes spectacle.

Insights:

• Derby County FC posted a 15–4–4 home record in 2024–25 League One, averaging 1.9 goals per game at Pride Park, where the South Stand’s roar often overwhelms opponents.
• Leicester City FC won 11 away games in 2024–25, averaging 1.8 goals per game, but lost two of five matches against physical, high-pressing teams.
• Derby County FC’s 4-2-3-1 under Warne emphasizes rapid counters and high pressing, while Leicester City FC’s 4-3-3 focuses on possession and midfield dominance.
• James Collins (14 goals in 2024–25 League One) versus Leicester City FC’s Wout Faes (2.3 tackles per game) will be pivotal, with Collins’ movement testing Faes’ aerial strength.
• Leicester City FC lead the series 18–10–7 since 2000, but Derby County FC’s 2–1 home win in 2022–23, with Collins scoring, boosts their confidence.
• Derby County FC aim for Championship survival, while Leicester City FC target automatic promotion, making points crucial for both.
• Derby County FC’s Eiran Cashin is fit after a minor knock, but Leicester City FC’s Harry Winks is questionable with a calf strain, potentially weakening their midfield control.
• Pride Park’s passionate South Stand contrasts with Leicester City FC’s vocal away supporters, creating a charged derby atmosphere.
• Warne’s use of overlapping fullbacks could exploit Leicester City FC’s wide defending, while Cooper’s emphasis on set-piece defending aims to neutralize Derby County FC’s rhythm.
• Historical derbies at Pride Park average 2.6 goals per game, often decided by late strikes or set-piece moments.

Match Forecasts:

• Nathaniel Mendez-Laing is likely to score or assist, using his League One form (10 goals, 12 assists) to exploit Leicester City FC’s left flank with pace and dribbling.
• Jamie Vardy (15 goals in 2024–25) could trouble Derby County FC’s defense on the break, targeting Curtis Davies’ positioning with his movement.
• Derby County FC’s Max Bird (86% passing accuracy) will battle Leicester City FC’s Wilfred Ndidi and Harry Winks, who averaged 2.2 tackles per game, with midfield physicality shaping the tempo.
• Derby County FC converted 14% of corners into shots in League One 2024–25, with Davies a aerial threat; Leicester City FC’s Faes is strong defending set pieces.
• Derby County FC’s Jerry Yates could provide a late spark off the bench, while Leicester City FC’s Abdul Fatawu offers flair in the final 20 minutes.
• Leicester City FC’s backline allowed 1.3 goals per away game in 2024–25, vulnerable to Derby County FC’s quick transitions, which averaged 1.6 successful dribbles per game in League One.
• The game may start with Derby County FC’s high press, but 60% of their recent home games featured goals after the 75th minute, suggesting late drama.
• Tactical battle hinges on Derby County FC’s pressing intensity (1.7 turnovers forced per game) versus Leicester City FC’s possession (55% average), with turnovers likely decisive.

Derby County FC 1–2 Leicester City FC Leicester City FC’s technical superiority and attacking depth should edge a narrow derby victory. The Pride Park atmosphere will fuel Derby County FC’s early physicality, likely leading to a Collins header. Leicester City FC’s pressing and Vardy’s movement will unlock the low block, with a late Fatawu or Ndidi strike clinching the points despite Derby’s resilient defending.

Match Facts:

• Leicester City FC lead the series 18–10–7 since 2000, with 75 goals scored in those matches (2.1 goals per game average), often featuring intense derbies.
• Pride Park Stadium, with a 33,600 capacity, is expected to sell out, with the South Stand creating a hostile atmosphere reaching 107 decibels.
• The referee is TBD, but 2025–26’s semi-automated offside technology will reduce decision times by approximately 30 seconds.
• Broadcast on TBD (UK) and Sky Sports (international) with English and Spanish commentary; local radio includes BBC Radio Derby and BBC Radio Leicester.
• Derby on November 22, 2025, forecasts 50°F with a 30% chance of light rain, potentially aiding direct play on a slick pitch.
• A Leicester City FC win would mark their 125th Championship away victory since 2010, strengthening their promotion push.
• James Collins is two goals shy of 50 career goals; Jamie Vardy could reach 200 Championship goals with a brace.
• Leicester City FC have won 70% of away derbies against Derby County FC since 2010, often capitalizing on second-half pressure to secure results.